NFL Week 6 Picks!
Last week was ROUGH! I went 7-7 on NFL picks and 6-7 on O/U's.
On the year I'm 19-10 in picks 65% & 13-13 in O/U's 50%
Lock of the week I won both games. Rams > Washington & Cardinals > Jets
My Upset pick of the week fell short. Falcons lost to the Panthers.
So on the year I'm 4-0 for Lock of the week & 1-1. in Upset of the week.
Houston Texans (+150) vs Tennesse Titans (-170) O/U 53
The Texans beat the Jaguars 30-14. Not as dominant of a win as the score indicated but win is a win. The Titans on the other hand smashed the Bills 42-16. The offense looked amazing and the defense made plays. It pains me to say this but Ryan Tannehill is a top 10 Qb in the league. It doesn’t feel right to say out loud but after watching that Tuesday game I can’t fight it anymore. The Titans are 4-0 and soon will be 5-0. I'll also take the under. 53 is a lot of points. Could happen but I see the Titans using the ground game and controlling time of possession.
Pick Tennessee Titans (-170)
O/U 53 = Take The Under
Baltimore Ravens (-345) vs Philadelphia Eagles (+285) O/U 47.5
The Ravens beat up on the Bengals 27-3 but while Lamar did make throws when he had too he struggled for most of this game. They couldn’t get the running game going and relied heavily on the defense to pick up the win. Meanwhile the Eagles kept it close with the Steelers but eventually lost 38-29. Mile Sanders went off and he’s looking good. Wentz made some throws. But as usual not enough to win. This one seems like an easy pick but I think it will be close. I'll take the Ravens here. The Eagles defensive line could create problems for Lamar early and he hasn’t looked amazing in the last few weeks but I feel the Ravens defense will stop the run. Force Wentz to throw and that will be bad for the Eagles but good for the over.
Pick Baltimore Ravens (-345)
O/U 47.5 = Take The Over
Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings
The Falcons lost to the Panthers 16-23. The offense stinks. The defense blows. They finally fired their coach Dan Quin but if you ask me it’s too little too late. The Vikings lost 26-27 to the Seahawks and it was bullshit. They had the game won and let up a 4th and 10 jump ball to DK METKALF. Not saying DK ain’t a beast but any good team stops that. The Vikings lost Dalvin Cook but still have most of their weapons intact. I’m never picking the Falcons again and feel the Vikings are pissed going into this one so I’m picking Vikings.
Pick Minnesota Vikings
Cleveland Browns (+165) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (-195) O/U 51
The Browns beat the Colts 32-23. The run game was going. Obj and Landry had great games. This was a statement win putting the Browns at 4-1 on the year. Baker did seemingly get hurt. Nothing’s official yet but his ribs have got to be at least bruised. The Steelers beat the Eagles 38-29. It wasn’t pretty but the Steelers find ways to win. Chase Claypool looks like Julio Jones. James Conner looks healthy and that defense is solid. If Baker was 100% I’d go Browns here but I don’t think he is so I’m rolling with the home team here. Pick the Steelers. Take the under.
Pick Pittsburgh Steelers (-195)
O/U 51 = Take The Under
Cincinnati Bengals (+306) vs Indianapolis Colts (-385) O/U 46.5
The Bengals lost 3-27 against the Ravens. Burrow has not protection. Mixon had no room to run and it was tough to watch. One bright spot is the defense forced turnovers and did at times hold the Ravens high powered offense in check. Meanwhile The Colts lost to the Browns 23-32. Their defense tried to keep them in it but the offense could never capitalize on any opportunity. No matter what happens in this game we’re gonna find out of the Colts are contenders or pretenders. I look at this game and just don’t fear the Colts. Rivers can’t move and makes horrible decisions. Their defense makes plays but not so much the defensive line. I feel Mixon will have room to run on them. I feel Burrow will have some time to throw and I think the Bengals defense gets to Rivers early and often. I’d take the Colts straight up but if you give me the +8 I’ll take the Bengals. This game also has a 24-21 feel so take the under.
Pick Indianapolis Colts (-385)
( Bengals +8 )
O/U 46.5 = Take The Under
Detroit Lions (-170) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (+150) O/U 54.5
The Jaguars are coming off a 30-14 loss to the Texans who before facing them were winless. The Jags become very beatable if you stop the run and the defense is horrible. The Lions are coming off a bye week and I think will win this game big. I’m going with the Lions in my LOCK OF THE WEEK! This game could produce a lot of points but 54.5 is too much. I'll reluctantly take the under.
Pick Detroit Lions (-170)
O/U 54.5 = Take The Under
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Chicago Bears (+100) vs Carolina Panthers (-120) O/U 44.5
The Bears beat the Buccaneers 20-19 last Thursday. Nick Foles made big plays in big moments as per usual. Not much else needs to be said there. The Panthers beat the Falcons 23-16 and continue to prove me and the doubters wrong. The Bears are 4-1 and the Panthers are 3-2 on a 3 game winning streak. If you took the Bears at +100 I'd understand but I've been wrong about the Panthers too many times to go against them again. I see this as a defensive battle so take the under.
Pick Carolina Panthers (-120)
O/U 44.5 = Take The Under
Washington (+125) vs NY Giants (-145) . O/U 43
The Giants lost 34-37 to the Cowboys. They did a lot right. They took chances and made plays but NOONE CAN MATCH THE RED RIFLE ANDY DALTON!
Meanwhile Washington lost 30-10 to the Rams. Kyle Allen got hurt and Alex Smith got to play which was a feel good moment. Other then that not much else to feel good about. All signs point to the Giants taking this win. But this has upset pick written all over it! Washingtons pass rush gets to Jones early and often. Allen will make throws and enough plays to win. Take Washington and the over.
Pick Washington (+125)
O/U 43 = Take The Over
UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK
Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots
Both these teams dealt with covid. In the end I feel the Broncos have too many injuries and even if they didn't I'm rolling with Cam and Bill on this one.
NY Jets (+325) vs Miami Dolphins (-400) O/U 47
The Jets are awful. Not much else needs to be said. The Dolphins destroyed the 49ers on the road. The Dolphins are trending up. They are gonna destroy the Jets. The over under is scary here cause the Fins could score 47 themselves. I'm gonna take the under. I feel the Dolphins get an early lead and let up on them later.
Pick Miami Dolphins (-400)
O/U 47 = Take The Under
2nd LOCK OF THE WEEK
Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers O/U 55.5
The Buccaneers lost 19-20 to the Bears. It was a game they had in the bag and never closed the door so Foles kicked it in. Brady was under duress the whole game and visably frustrated. The defense was ok but not amazing. Meanwhile The Packers are rested and firing on all cylinders. I look at the Bucs and feel they bring it here. Brady will be on point and the Bucs will go off a bit but in the end until the Packers lose I’m riding with them. I'm also taking the under.
Pick Green Bay Packers
O/U 55.5 = Take The Under
LA Rams (-170) vs SF 49ers (+150) O/U 51.5
The Rams cleaned up on Washington 30-10. They look strong in all phases. The 49ers got SMOKED by the Dolphins at home 43-17. Jimmy G came back only to throw multiple INTS and get back on the bench. Get a fork... AND STICK IT IN THE 49ers!!!!!! I PICKED THE RAMS 2 weeks in a row in lock of the week and ONCE AGAIN TAKE THE RAMS!! LOCK OF THE WEEK!! Also take the under.
Pick LA Rams (-170)
O/U 51.5 = Take The Under
3rd LOCK OF THE WEEK
Kansas City Chiefs (-205) vs Buffalo Bills (+175) O/U 57.5
The Chiefs are coming off a loss to the Raiders 32-40. They looked shaky against the Patriots and followed that up with a loss. This is the first feeling of uncertainty with the Chiefs for me. The Bills got STARCHED by the Titans 42-16. Allen was a bit unlucky in the game. He made some plays and made some mistakes. I thought the Bills played ok despite the score and feel they are a good team. That being said idk what Mahomes looks like after a loss like last Sunday. I’m gonna assume he’s pissed and that’s enough reason for me to go Chiefs here. Also hate to take the under here but that seems to be the trend lol
Pick Kansas City Chiefs (-205)
O/U 57.5 = Take The Under
Arizona Cardinals (-120) vs Dallas Cowboys (+100) O/U 55
The Cardinals cleaned up the Jets 30-10. Not super impressed. The Cardinals seem to beat lesser teams and lose to legit teams. The Cowboys beat the Giants in dramatic fashion led by Andy Dalton. If you listened to this podcast in the past you know I trash Dalton all day. He’s not a great QB under pressure. But with that O-Line.. Zeke.. All those weapons.. he’s enough to keep the Cowboys relevant. I’m picking the Andy Daltons! HOW BOUT THEM COWBOYS BABY! POUND THE OVER!
Pick Dallas Cowboys (+100)
O/U 55 = POUND THE OVER
2nd UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK