NFL Week 5 Picks!
Last Week I went 12-3 in picks and 7-6 in O/U's
Looking to keep the momentum in picks and get better with the over/under's.
I went 2-0 in Lock Of The Week! With Ravens > Washington and LA Rams > Giants
I also went 1-0 in Upset Pick Of The Week! With Eagles > 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-185) vs Chicago Bears (+160) O/U 44.5
The Buccaneers started slow against the Chargers last week and looked bad first half. 5 touchdown passes from the goat later and the Buccaneers beat the Chargers 38-31. That is they're 3rd win in a row. I will say the win came with a cost. Evans, Godwin, Gronk, Fournette, Mcoy, Miller and Jason Pierre Paul all on the injury report. O.J. Howard out for the season. Meanwhile the Bears lost to the Colts at home 19-11. The defense held the Colts in check but the Bears offense couldn’t capitalize on anything.
The list of injuries for the Buccaneers concerns me. Brady doesn’t have much rest and his team is hobbled around him. This game has upset written all over it! BUT... I’m gonna go with the Bucs. Brady looks good so I’ll ride with him. I'm also gonna take the over. For some reason these Thursday night games have been high scoring every week.
Pick Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-185)
O/U 44.5 = Take The Over
LA Rams (-350) vs Washington (+281) O/U 45
The Rams beat the giants 19-7 in my lock of the week last Sunday. It wasn’t a pretty win but it put them to 3-1 on the year. Meanwhile the Washington football team lost to the Ravens 31-17. They never had much of a chance in that one. The Rams have been known to lay down to a lesser opponents. While Washington has been competitive at times. Don't be fooled by last week. The Rams win this one easy. This is my Lock Of The Week! I'll also be taking the under here. I don't trust Washington to keep up.
Pick LA Rams (-350)
O/U 45 = Take The Under
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Philadelphia Eagles (+267) vs Pittsburg Steelers (-330) O/U 43.5
The Eagles got their first win of the season against the 49ers 25-20. Putting them at 1-2-1 on the year. The Steelers didn’t play because the Titans all got covid. To me This game is what some would call smash mouth football. The Eagles and Steelers success depends on their running game and defenses. Both teams are good in those areas. Should be a fun one to watch. I’m tempted to take the Eagles here. I feel they are starting to find themselves. But the Steelers at home with some rest is tough to pick against. I’ll go Steelers but I'd also recommend taking the Eagles with the spread of +7. Even though there will be a lot of running and solid defensive play I'll take the over. Too much talent on the field not too.
Pick Pittsburg Steelers (-330)
(Also Eagles +7 if you take the spread)
O/U 43.5 = Take The Over
Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans (Even) No O/U
The Buffalo Bills beat the Raiders 30-23 putting them at 4-0 on the year. Josh Allen is making plays through the air and with his feet. The addition of Stephon Diggs really payed off for the passing game. The defense is solid. They can run the ball when they need too. They are as complete a team as there is in the NFL right now.
Meanwhile the Titans caught a bit of the Covid. Over 10 players were confirmed to have carona virus so their game with the Steelers was postponed for a later date. The Titans are 3-0 and are coming into this game fresh. If someone took the Titans I’d understand but I’m rolling with the Bills here. I like what I see from them.
Pick Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars (+218) vs Houston Texans (-265) O/U 54.5
This is battle of the suck lmao the Jaguars lost to the Bengals 33-25. When you can stop Robinson and that run game the Jaguars are not as explosive on offense. That loss brought them to 1-3 on the year. The Texans lost 31-23 to the Vikings. They had chances in the game but as usual they didn’t capitalize and went to 0-4 on the year. That was enough to get management to fire head coach Bill O’Brien. It was a long time coming. With all the playoff choking and trading Hopkins away and trading all their draft picks. Both these teams desperately need a win. I look at the Texans and see a lot of wasted talent. Having the coach fired is the kick in the ass this team needed and I feel after a few weeks of hanging around but losing. In the end they figure this one out and come away with their first win of the season. Both teams have bad defenses so although the number is high I'll take the over.
Pick Houston Texans (-265)
O/U 54.5 = Take The Over
Las Vegas Raiders (+534) Vs Kansas City Chiefs (-750) O/U 56.5
The Raiders lost 30-23 to the Bills. They hung around and made plays to keep it close but for 2 weeks in a row they lost to the better team. The Chiefs beat the Patriots 26-10 but the score didn’t reflect the truth. No Cam Newton killed the Patriots. Hoyer and Stidham made huge mistakes at big moments. The Refs missed a call on an interception that would have changed the complection of that game and Bill once again created the blueprint to beat the Chiefs. The Chiefs were lucky to win but nonetheless they are 4-0. Because of that I’m going to take the Chiefs here. I think that game was a wake up call that they are not invincible. I see the Chiefs scoring over 30 and the Raiders keeping it close as they usually do. So take the over even though it's a lot.
Pick Kansas City Chiefs (-750)
O/U 56.5 = Take The Over
Carolina Panthers (+105) vs Atlanta Falcons (-125) O/U 54.5
The Panthers upset the Cardinals 31-21 and after 2 wins in a row are starting to put people on notice. The defense creates turnovers and the offense is moving the ball despite losing their best player CMC. Impressive stuff from the Panthers. Meanwhile the Falcons lost to the Packers 30-16. Julio Jones left the game and his availability is limited at best. Todd Gurley got a few touchdowns and looked decent but other then that the falcons couldn’t put it together. One team trending up. One team trending down. The Falcons are the laughing stock of the league. No one fears them. No one respects them and that tends to make a team dangerous. They nearly beat the Cowboys and Bears but made mistakes and I’m not gonna say they won’t make mistakes but I’m taking The Falcons! Also taking the over.
Pick Atlanta Falcons (-125)
O/U 54.5 = Take The Over
Cincinnati Bengals (+562) vs Baltimore Ravens (-800) O/U 51
The Bengals got their first win of the season against the Jaguars last week 33-25. The run game was there for Joe Mixon. The defense made stops when they had to and Joe Burrow made all the throws. Joe Burrow became the first rookie Qb in NFL history to throw for 300+ yards in 3 consecutive games. The Bengals are 1-2-1 and above all are dangerous. Even when they lose it’s not by much. Meanwhile the Ravens killed Washington 31-17. Lamar Jackson got back on track running and throwing the football. The defense made plays when they needed too. The Ravens are 3-1 on the year and a top contender in the AFC. That being said. The Bengals spread is 13.5 and even when they have lost it has not been by much. Do yourself a favor and take those odds. I don’t see anyway the Ravens win by that much. I’ll pick the Ravens to win but this game will be competitive. Also take the over.
Pick Baltimore Ravens
(If you pick spread go Bengals +13.5)
O/U 51 = Take The Over
Arizona Cardinals (-335) vs New York Jets (+271) O/U 46.5
If the Cardinals were playing anyone else I’d take the other team. But they are playing the 0-4 Jets and Hopkins alone is enough to beat them. This is my 2nd LOCK OF THE WEEK! I don't trust the Jets to score so take the under here.
Pick Arizona Cardinals (-335)
O/U 46.5 = Take The Under
2nd LOCK OF THE WEEK
Miami Dolphins (+300) vs San Francisco 49ers (-360) O/U 49
The Dolphins lost to the Seahawks 31-23 moving them to 1-3 on the year but they were very impressive in the loss. They hung around the whole game making plays. The offense moved the ball well. It was a solid performance by them. Meanwhile the 49ers lost to the Eagles at home 25-20. They made too many mistakes and even benched their 2nd string Qb for their 3rd because Jimmy G was out. So there’s a lot of questions for the 49ers moving forward. I’m hearing Jimmy G is healthy and back Sunday. That was a tough loss and in their division they can’t afford a loss to the fins here. I'll take the 49ers and the under.
Pick San Fransisco 49ers (-360)
O/U 49 = Take The Under
Denver Broncos (+425) vs New England Patriots (-550)
The Broncos got their first win of the year against the Jets 37-28. Not super impressive but they did some things well on both sides of the ball. The Patriots lost big to the chiefs but as we went over earlier there was a lot to take from that game as positives for the Pats moving forward. Even if Cam doesn’t play the Patriots take this game easily. When you got Bill Billichek you don’t lose to backups.
Pick New England Patriots
Indianapolis Colts (-125) vs Cleveland Browns (+105) O/U 45.5
The Colts beat the Bears 19-11. Not an impressive win but they got the job done. Meanwhile the Browns torched the Cowboys. The offense looks fantastic. The loss of chub sucks but Hunt is more then capable or carrying the load. Both these teams are 3-1 and seem to be the real deal. I really like what the browns have going on but the Browns are 30th in the league against the pass. The Colts are #1 defending the pass. I see this game being decided through the air and I’ll take the Colts because of that. If you wanted to go Browns at +105 I get that cause this game could go either way. No matter who you pick take the over.
Pick Indianapolis Colts (-125)
O/U 45.5 = Take The Over
New York Giants (+347) vs Dallas Cowboys (-445) O/U 54
The Giants actually played a decent game against the Rams last week. They lost 17-9 but they hung around against a solid team. The Cowboys lost 49-38 to the Browns and it was UGLY. The Browns ran, threw and basically did whatever they wanted. The Cowboys are not very good despite having talent everywhere. I’m gonna take them to beat the Giants because the Giants are awful but even with a win the Cowboys gotta figure it out. Pound the over on this one.
Pick Dallas Cowboys (-445)
O/U 54 = Pound The Over
Minnesota Vikings (+260) vs Seattle Seahawks (-320) O/U 57.5
The Vikings got their first win of the year against the Texans 31-23. It came down to the last play but the Vikings held on. Meanwhile the Seahawks beat the Dolphins 31-23. Not an overly impressive victory but they do tend to play down to there opponents. Seattle is 3rd in the league at stopping the run but last in the league in pass defense. I’m so damn tempted to go upset here. GOD I WISH THE VIKINGS DEFENSE WASNT THE Worst. You know what I DON'T CARE! VIKINGS WIN IN A SHOOTOUT! UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK! POUND THE OVER BABY LETS GOOOOOOOO!
Pick Minnesota Vikings (+260)
(Also if you do spread take Vikings +7)
O/U 57.5 = Take The Over
UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK
LA Chargers (+306) vs New Orleans Saints (-385) O/U 51
The Chargers lost to the Bucs 38-31 putting them at 1-3 on the year. When they lose it’s not by much. They have been a very solid competitive team. The Saints have been either very good or not so much. They beat the Lions 35-29 but made a lot of mistakes in the win. I feel the Chargers could absolutely take this one. Their defense is on fire but in New Orleans fans or no fans I’m taking the Saints. I'm also gonna take the under as I feel both teams struggle early on offense.
Pick New Orleans Saints
(If you do spreads take Chargers +8)
O/U 51 = Take The Under
Last week was a solid one. Hope to give you some good picks again! If you want to hear me go over these games more in depth check out the Podcast and Instagram below!